IBM’s 5 in 5 List for 2013: Humans and Computers Become Smarter Together

IBM 5in5 2013Every year around this time, the IBM Research team publishes a list called “5 in 5”.   The list is based on research into market and societal trends as well as emerging technologies from IBM’s Research labs around the world.  As a foresight analyst, I love these annual lists as it’s a little bit of trends research readout and a little bit of scenario planning that’s all designed to get people thinking and talking about how our lives will be transformed in the near future by technologies that are being developed today.

This year’s IBM 5 in 5 explores the idea that humans and computers will become smarter together and as a result of learning insights from the vast amounts of data.  The 2013 5 In 5 lists explore scenarios in education, retail, healthcare, security and our cities.   IBM says that in the future, everything will learn – driven by a new era of cognitive systems where machines will learn, reason and engage with us in a more natural and personalized way. These innovations are already beginning to emerge, enabled by cloud computing, big data analytics and learning technologies all coming together. Over time, these computers will get smarter and more customized through interactions with data, devices and us.  Humans and computers will learn faster and the result will be that we will be able to solve previously unsolvable problems in education, retail, healthcare, security and our cities.

So this year’s 5 in 5 from IBM is as follows

1. The Classroom Will Learn You.    IBM says that the classroom of the future will give educators the tools to learn about every student, providing them with a tailored curriculum from kindergarten to high school and on to employment. In the next five years the classroom will learn about each student using longitudinal data such as test scores, attendance and student’s behavior on e-learning platforms, not just aptitude tests.  Sophisticated analytics delivered over the cloud will provide decision support to teachers so they can predict students who are most at risk, their roadblocks, and then suggest measures to help students conquer their challenges based on their individual learning style.  For more, read the full story around “The Classroom Will Learn You” 
2. Buying Local Will Beat Online.   Today, most physical stores are limited to the insights they can gain at the point of sale – and the trend of showrooming is making it harder to compete with online retailers who compete solely on price.  IBM says that In five years, new innovations will make buying local du jour once again.  Savvy retailers will use the immediacy of the store and proximity to customers to create experiences that cannot be replicated by online-only retail.  They will magnify the digital experience by bringing the web right to where the shopper can physically touch it.   For more, read the full story around “Buying Local Will Beat Online” 
3. Doctors Will Routinely Use Your DNA To Keep You Well.   Imagine if treatment could be more specific and precise – where computers could help doctors understand how a tumor affects a patient down to their DNA and present a collective set of medications shown to best attack the cancer.   IBM is predicting that in five years, advances in big data analytics and emerging cloud-based cognitive systems coupled with breakthroughs in genomic research and testing could help doctors to accurately diagnose cancer and create personalized cancer treatment plans for millions of patients around the world.  Smart machines will take the output of full genome sequencing and scour vast repositories of medical records and publications to learn and quickly provide specific and actionable insights on treatment options for oncologists.  For more, read the full story around “Doctors Will Routinely Use Your DNA To Keep You Well”    
4. A Digital Guardian Will Protect You Online.  IBM says that by 2019, each of us could be protected with our own digital guardian that will become trained to focus on our digital and physical assets, offering a new level of identity theft protection. Security will assimilate contextual, situational and historical data to verify a person’s identity on different devices. By learning about users, a digital guardian can make inferences about what’s normal or reasonable activity and what’s not, acting as an advisor when they want it to.  For more, read the full story around “A Digital Guardian Will Protect You Online”     
5. The City Will Help You Live In It.    IBM has been leading the discussion around Smarter Cities  for about five years.   IBM is saying now that within five years Smarter Cities will be able to react more in real time.  Computers will learn to understand what people need, what they like, what they do, and how they move from place to place.   Soon it will be possible for cities and their leaders to understand and digest new information freely provided by citizens, knowing which city resources are needed, where and when, so the city can dynamically optimize around the needs of the citizens.   For more, read the full story around “The City Will Help you Live In It”.

There is much more content for you to learn more about each one of the 5 in 5 prediction scenarios.   For more information, you can check out

And, if you want to, you can explore all the past lists of IBM 5 in 5 projects and how those technologies have progressed since appearing on the list.  For that go to Five in Five—where are they now?

IDC Health Insights: 2012 Health Industry Predictions

Earlier this week, I attended the annual IDC Health Insights Predictions 2012:  Health conference call.  

This was a global predictions call that covered the entire Health Industry, including health payer, provider and life science sectors.  The team identify major global trends that will impact the has scheduled other prediction calls going into more detail on topics specific to payer, provider and life sciences.  There are also other calls coming up that focus on health industry related predictions in both Europe and Asia.   

Leading this conference call was the IDC Health Insights Group Vice President, Scott Lundstrom.  Also on the call were 8 other members of the IDC Health Insights analyst team

Summary

IDC says significant changes are transforming components of the Health Industry value chain driven by a focus on patient safety, cost containment, quality improvement, and regulatory compliance.  Key topics of importance to business leaders will be EMR and EHR for providers, connected health, healthcare industry reform, and the life sciences value chain. 

Overall, IDC list 5 major technology themes

  1. Reform
  2. Analytics and Big Data
  3. Cloud
  4. Mobile
  5. Social

IDC is hot on themes 2-5 throughout all of its predictions calls.  

The IDC Health Insights Ten Predictions for 2012

The 2012 predictions list below was sourced from the conference call slides.

  1. EHR. “The Majority of U.S. Providers Will Use an EHR by the End of 2012”.
  2. ACOs. “Successful Accountable Care Organizations Will Emerge from Private or Public-Private Initiatives” 
  3. Re-Branding for Care. “Health Plans Rebrand: Care is the New Core”
  4. Integrated Strategies. “Integration of Payment, Clinical Performance and Outcomes”
  5. Analytics for Pharma. “Pharma adds "Actionable" to Analytics in 2012”
  6. Analytics for ACOs. “The Next Mountain for ACOs to Climb Will be the Development of an Enterprise Analytic Framework Including Clinical Analytics”
  7. Outsourcing.  “Outsourcing Best Practices Shift From Vendor to Partner”
  8. Mobile. “Bring Your Own Mobile Device Gains Popularity, But Security Risks Abound”
  9. Communication Strategy. “Second-Generation Communication Strategies Emerge”
  10. Social. “The Next Generation of Consumer Engagement will Leverage Consumers’ Social Graphs”

For More Information

Scientific American: 20 World Changing Ideas in Science

Scientific American 20 World Changing Ideas Scientific American published an article back in December titled “World Changing Ideas” that caught my eye.   The article provides a laundry list of ideas that Scientific American says have the potential to improve our lives and our planet.  The magazine has been running similar articles on an annual basis for a number of years.

The December article covers ideas in five general categories (Energy,Transportation, Environment, Electronics, and Health) that highlight the power of science and technology to improve the world.

Here’s a summary of some of the 20 ideas from this article

Energy

  • Pay for solar panels on your house like you pay for a house mortgage.
  • Biofuels from genetically engineered plants.
  • Innovations in Nuclear Power production that can stem nuclear proliferation
  • Smart meters in the home
  • Wind Power harvested from a fleet of high-flying giant kites or windmills

Transportation

  • Plug-in hybrid trucks for short-haul cargo trips
  • Subway-like bus lines

Environment

  • Someday the oceans might be regulated by a worldwide marine planning and zoning committee
  • Harvesting energy trapped in garbage via a technology called plasma gasification
  • Cement that naturally absorbs carbon dioxide as it hardens
  • Introducing new honeybee colonies to our farms
  • Developing crops that can handle saltwater

Electronics

  • HP’s Central Nervous System for the Earth (CeNSE) project
  • Smartphones that can act as real-time language translators
  • Advances in Personal Robotics

Health

  • Biomarkers can help understand the causes of complex diseases
  • Satellites can help track and predict the spread of diseases
  • Better and cheaper ways to help blood clot quicker
  • Performing blood tests in real time by putting a drop of blood on a computer chip
  • Innovations in dental care.

The 20 ideas above are all interesting and innovative trends in science and technology.  Some I would say are more ‘world changing’ than other ideas.  And I am sure we could all come up with another 20 trends / ideas in science that are not listed above.

There’s much more detail in the article.  Scientific American articles are available to subscribers only, but at the time of the writing of this post, I found the article at Scribd here: http://www.scribd.com/doc/23475128/20-World-Changing-Ideas.  Also…you can listen to a podcast where Scientific American magazine Editor in Chief Mariette DiChristina and editor Michael Moyer talk about the "World Changing Ideas" feature ( Download this podcast ). 

IBM: 5 Innovations That Will Impact Us Within 5 Years

IBM 5 in 5 The world is experiencing unprecedented urbanization.  Last year marked the first time in history that the majority of the world’s population was residing in cities.  This trend is not stopping and will have huge implications for our large urban environments we call home.  So what can be done to make our cities economically, socially and technologically healthy–and keep them that way?

IBM recently unveiled a list of 5 innovations that will have the potential to change how people live, work and play in cities around the globe over the next five years.  The following text provides a summary and there is a 3 minute video embedded below…

IBM’s Next 5 in 5…

1) Cities will have healthier immune systems:  Because of population densities, cities will remain hotbeds of communicable diseases.  By standardizing methods for sharing health information and analyzing disease outbreaks, public health officials will know precisely when, where and how diseases are spreading.

2) City buildings will sense and respond like living organisms:   The technology that manages building facilities "will operate like a living organism that can sense and respond quickly." Thousands of sensors inside buildings will monitor everything from motion and temperature to humidity, occupancy and light.  These smart buildings will enable repairs to be made before something breaks, will help emergency units respond quickly, and will let people and companies monitor their energy consumption and carbon emission in real-time.

3) Cars and city buses will run on empty:   IBM predicts that improved battery technology will power the next generation of eco-friendly vehicles. It says the new batteries won’t need to be recharged for days or months at a time (depending on how often the vehicles are driven) and will allow trips of 300 to 500 miles on a single charge.  Also smart grids in cities will allow vehicles to be charged in public places using renewable energy, such as wind power, for charging so they no longer rely on coal-powered plants.

4) Smarter systems will quench cities' thirst for water and save energy:  To deal with the estimate that demand for water is expected to increase sixfold in the next 50 years cities will install smarter water systems to reduce water waste by up to 50 percent.  Smart sewer systems will also be installed that not only prevent run-off pollution in rivers and lakes, but purify water to make it drinkable.  Plus, interactive meters and sensors will provide people with real time, accurate information about their water consumption. 

5) Cities will respond to a crisis:  Even before receiving an emergency phone call. In support of the news:  IBM is helping law enforcement agencies analyze information so they can anticipate crime and be ready to respond when it happens.  Also the New York Fire Department has selected IBM to build a state-of-the-art system for collecting and sharing data in real-time and the company is also designing smart levee systems to prevent cities from devastating floods. 

A common denominator in all five of these innovations is a sophisticated data analytics capability that can take volumes of data, perform modeling and simulation on that data, and turn it into actionable insights for decision makers.  Five years could be an optimistic time frame for a few of these, but in this case, I think a little optimism helps to push the envelope on research and development of the innovations.

Watch the 3 minute video….

Read up more on IBM’s Next 5 in 5

IDC Insights: Healthcare Top 10 Predictions for 2010

IDC Healthcare 2010 Predictions The IDC Healthcare Insights held its annual Healthcare predictions call for 2010 yesterday.   Scott Lundstrom, IDC Vice President of Research, led the call and brought in other analysts to cover the key trends by geography, by Payer/Provider, and sub-industries Life Sciences and Pharma.

Here’s my summary of the top ten predictions reviewed on the call:

  1. Business Intelligence:  IDC says this is the number one technology investment category
  2. Actionable Advice Will Lead Business Intelligence Priorities and Investment:  Demand for real-time and just-in-time information is growing to improve decision making
  3. Legislative and Regulatory Compliance Initiatives: IDC expects this to be among the top 3 tech investment categories in 2010
  4. Days of Following the Hype Will Be Over: Firms will focus on ROI and value in selection criteria
  5. 2010 Will Be the Year of the EMR: IDC says to expect unprecedented levels of activity in the EMR/EHR application market.
  6. Health Information Exchanges:  IDC says that meaningful use requirements will fuel investment in HIE technologies
  7. Medical Home Best Practices Will Emerge:  IDC expects pilots will drive the documentation of best practices for the emerging medical home market.
  8. Cost As A Function Of Delivered Benefit:  Value in the drug access and pricing equation will begin to significantly impact drug makers in the U.S.
  9. Research Moved To The Cloud:   Major Pharmaceutical companies will move significant amounts of their discovery research IT infrastructure to the cloud
  10. Pharmaceutical IT Spending on Aggregate Promotional Spend Compliance Will Surge:  Demand for IT software and services focused on monitoring aggregate spend compliance will continue to grow at a quick pace.

Healthcare IT has been heating up for a number of years.  There are many, many reasons why it has been slow to take off.  The move to electronic medical records is a key trend that will help enable the transformation of all the inefficient systems in the healthcare system.  When that is complete, then the business intelligence initiatives will pay off considerably. 

I can’t wait for a better healthcare IT system to be in place!  Unfortunately the true potential of a better healthcare IT system will not be realized for a number of years.

For more information

IBM and InformationWeek to hold Smarter Business and Smarter Healthcare Webinar

There is a webinar tomorrow titled “Smarter Business Webcast with Smarter Healthcare Emphasis”.  The webinar is Thursday, December 10, 2009 at 9:00 AM PT

Both IBM and Information week are sponsoring the webinar to give us a glimpse into sophisticated information technologies such as analytics, sensor-equipped networks, and Web applications that can make industries, processes, and professionals smarter than ever before.  IBM will join InformationWeek in the live, 60-minute video webcast presentation on the topic of Smarter Business.

The webcast will feature a 15-minute presentation by Sean Hogan, Vice President, Global Healthcare Delivery Systems, IBM Healthcare & Life Sciences, discussing Smarter Healthcare. Additionally, the webcast will include a panel discussion among InformationWeek Editor in Chief Rob Preston, InformationWeek Editor Chris Murphy, and Intelligent Enterprise Editor in Chief Doug Henschen, drawing from interviews with leading practitioners in presenting a range of compelling use cases.

The panel is expected to cover the following topics

  • Learn how innovative companies are transforming the healthcare ecosystem, reducing costs and providing better clinical outcomes
  • Get insight into how banks and other financial services companies are mitigating their risks in the hopes of averting another industry crisis
  • Understand how executives are peering into the future of their businesses and not just monitoring historical activity
  • Learn how law enforcement is analyzing data to fight crime, how agriculture companies are tapping the latest technologies to water their crops…and much more.

There will also be a time set aside near the end of the webinar for questions and answers.

Registration is at http://www.techwebonlineevents.com/ars/eventregistration.do?mode=eventreg&F=1001941&K=CAA1AC

Making Healthcare Smarter

Unless you are on Mars, you are aware that there’s a bunch of discussion going on now about making our Healthcare systems better.   Much of that discussion, I feel, is missing the critical topic of the IT infrastructure supporting our healthcare systems.  There needs to be more discussion on how to modernize the technology within the Healthcare systems. 

HealthCare systems should be designed to connect people to information, to experts and to each other so that collectively, we can all act proactively to better manage and deliver preventative and therapeutic care.  Our healthcare system s need better connections, better data, and faster and more detailed analysis.  It needs an integrated view of the underlying data/information and centering it on the patient, so each person "owns" his or her information, controls who access it, and has can provide that access to a networked team of collaborative care. 

We need to move away from paper records to electronic records.  This will reduce medical errors and improve efficiencies.  And more importantly, it will allow us to apply  advanced data analytics to the the vast amounts of data, to improve outcomes.

Some places for you to check out some good discussion going on these days about how technology can improve our healthcare system.

Video

The video to the right (lasts 1:41) makes the case for a smarter HealthCare System

Blogs

The following blogs are great resources on what is happening in Healthcare and IT

Upcoming Webinar

Join IBM and University of Pittsburgh Medical Center (UPMC) on September 16th, at 12:00ET for a complimentary web seminar:  "Making Smarter Healthcare a Reality: Implications for Today's CIO."Dan Pelino, General Manager of IBM Healthcare and Life Sciences, along with a distinguished guest panel will share their points of view on the evolution of smarter healthcare and how the motivational forces of patient safety and quality are driving new levels of transformation.  On the guest panel is…

  • G. Daniel Martich, MD, Chief Medical Information Officer and Associate Chief Medical Officer, UPMC, will discuss how UPMC embodies smarter healthcare and their transformative journey. Dr. Martich will also discuss the Center for Connected Medicine, a showcase facility for patient-centered, collaborative care.
  • Sean Hogan, Vice President, Global Healthcare Delivery Systems, IBM Healthcare and Life Sciences and Peggy Rodebush, RN, MSN, Healthcare Partner, IBM Global Business Services will share the results from the soon-to-be released IBM Global CIO Study providing provocative insights on the evolution of the Healthcare CIO’s role in the organization’s business strategy and in realizing innovative, smarter healthcare.  

Websites

Pew Internet: The Social Life of Health Information

The Pew Internet & American Life Project recently released a report, “The Social Life of Health Information”, that contains results from a survey on the way people are seeking out health information.   The survey was focused on U.S. respondents only. 

As can be expected, Americans are now turning more and more to online sources for information.   In the past, patients typically called a health professional, their Mom, or a good friend.  Today they are also searching online, reading blogs, listening to podcasts, updating their social network profile, and posting comments.   And many people, once they find health information online, talk with someone offline about that information they have found online.

Some interesting findings from this survey:

  • 57% of respondents use the Internet when locating health information
  • Two-thirds of people that find information online then discuss with someone else their findings
  • 60% of respondents have said that information they have found online has impacted the way they have then pursued treatment.
  • 41% of e-patients have read another person’s commentary or experience about health or medical issue

Also interesting was the finding that "e-patients" – what the authors called people who look online for health info – are more likely to engage in social media in general, compared with other Internet users.  For instance, e-patients are more likely than non-health seekers to have created or worked on their own blog, read someone else's blog, used a social networking site, used a micro-blogging site, and other activities.  Small numbers of people are using social software like Twitter and Facebook.  Mostly these services are used to follow another person’s health issue and then perhaps include their own commentary on the health issue. 

As use of the Internet and social media increases, it's not surprising that more people are searching for health information and participating and engaging in health-related communities.   As these people search for and create their own content, this will put added pressure on providers to embrace social media in order to participate in the discussion.

Read the entire report here: http://www.pewinternet.org/Reports/2009/8-The-Social-Life-of-Health-Information.aspx.

Flu Vaccine Process – Opportunities for Improvement

I was surprised – more than scared – by a recent NY Times article titled "Swine Flu Vaccine may be Months away." Although production is much faster than it would have been even a few years ago, it still may not be on time to avert illness if the virus starts spreading widely and becomes more virulent. However, the virus might also mutate in the coming month while the northern hemisphere enjoys a brief warm weather pause and then come back in a more virulent form in the cooler autumn weather. A few more articles helped me understand the process to create the vaccine and the opportunity for accelerating it and making it more efficient.

Despite years of effort, the world is still relying on half century old technology to make the flu vaccines. The first step is to turn the flu virus into seed stock – an essential first step, so the CDC has sent samples of the new strain to about 10 governments and academic labs in the US, Australia, GB, Hungary, and Russia. The vaccine is made by growing samples of flu virus inside fertilized chicken eggs then breaking out the key proteins that provoke an immune response. The process is time consuming as each egg is injected with repeated rounds of virus, each round of virus growth takes about 42 hours. The ultimate goal is to create a uniform seed stock from a single virus and to produce 80 vials of it, each containing millions of viruses. Then they are purified tested, and packaged into syringes. Once production is started, four months are needed for the vaccine to be ready.

In parallel, there is also a process for selecting which strains will be in the next few vaccines that started in February when a Government advisory committee selected three flu vaccines based on surveillance data indicating which strains are more likely to be circulating in the fall and winter. The Swine flu strain could be swapped for one of the other strains or added as a fourth. A second vaccine could also be developed, which would raise capacity issues.

Scientists are working on technology that would allow flu vaccines to be manufactured somewhat faster as the egg method is ill suited for a potential pandemie. The vaccine industry is in a much stronger position to respond now than it was five years ago when the US had only two flu vaccine suppliers and was hit by a severe shortage. Now, there are five suppliers to the domestic markets and the vaccine is attracting new investment lured by Government subsidies and higher prices. The Government is encouraging manufacturers to set up production in the US since all companies but Sanofi Aventis now import their flu vaccines. The government also gave $1.3B to develop ways of producing the vaccines in vats of animal cells rather than in eggs. Novartis is building a cell culture flu vaccine factory in NC which by be ready for use in 2010. By contrast, Solvay decided it was too risky to build a flu vaccine plant in the US and Sanofi Aventis put its efforts to develop the flu vaccine on a back burner. It seems that great opportunities for improvement exists not only at the technology level (capacity and productivity), but also at the supply chain level (delocalization, prioritization). Which industry is still relying on 50 year old technology anyway?

MSN Health: 9 Mind-Boggling Medical Technologies

This is a summary of was an article titled "Mind-Boggling Medical Technologies" that recently appeared on MSN's Health website.   Article here http://health.msn.com/health-topics/slideshow.aspx?cp-documentid=100217759 .  The article provided overviews of 9 emerging technologies in the medical field.  Some of them may seem far fetched, but I suspect there are many scientists working on these ideas and we will no doubt see many of them in our lifetime.

  1. Blood bots.  Someday surgeons will guide small robots through the body.  These robots may perform certain tasks, like clean plaque-filled vessels, slice off tissue for biopsies, or deliver targeted drugs
  2. Thought-controlled artificial limbs.  In the future a biological interface would link a patient's nervous system to an artificial limb that responds to thought.
  3. Brain-clot vacuum cleaner.  In the same way a vacuum cleaner suctions up debris, a device called the Penumbra is being tested that could suction life-threatening blood clots out of a stroke patient's brain.
  4. Deep transcranial magnetic therapy.  This technology sends an electromagnetic pulse through the skull and can induce neural excitation or inhibition deep inside the brain and is being tested for treatment of depression, Parkinson's disease, Alzheimer's, post-traumatic stress disorder, and even eating disorders.
  5. Breathalyzers for disease diagnosis.  This emerging technology will perform tests on a person's breath that might reveal a range of illnesses or conditions, including cancer, asthma and many others.
  6. Diagnosing Alzheimer's with a blood test.  Diagnosing Alzheimer's by means of a simple blood test may become a reality in the foreseeable future. 
  7. Spit here to detect breast cancer.  Researchers are trying to develop a simple breast cancer test that uses a person's saliva.
  8. Implantable nano wires to monitor blood pressure.  A little invasive, but researchers are working on an idea to implant small wires (we are talking very, very small wires) in the body to remotely monitor blood pressure
  9. Laser-powered heart beats.  This technology uses lasers to stimulate a release of calcium ions within the heart, which can restore a heart to a steady beat.

This was an interesting list to read.  Healthcare Technology is such an amazing  imagine industry.  We are living in an age where technology advancements in healthcare are happing rapidly.  The next 50-100 years we will see so many more fantastic innovations.  I can only hope that we find a way to deliver these innovations and other important medical advancements to less developed nations.