My last post provided a summary of seven technology predictions from Deloitte’s Technology, Media & Telecommunications (TMT) Industry group. In this post I will provide a summary of Deloitte’s predictions for the media industry.
Deloitte covers a wide range of topics in these predictions, including demand for on-demand TV, the integration of television and the web and the short-term prospects for 3D television.
Here’s my summary of Deloitte’s eight predictions for media…
- Linear's got legs: the television and radio schedule stays supreme. Deloitte says that most content will continue to be consumed according to broadcasters' programming schedules. I’d have to agree here, I don’t see this changing dramatically in 2010…or for the next few years.
- The shift to online advertising: more selective, but the trend continues. Deloitte sees this trend accelerating and as a result advertisers will look for better ways to measure the effectiveness of advertising online.
- eReaders fill a niche, but eBooks fly off the (virtual) shelves. Deloitte says that eReaders will not have a breakout year, but we should expect more and more users to download eBooks to their current devices. For myself, I do find myself downloading e-books every once in a while to my desktop. But only to skim them, not to read them like I would a book. While I like the general idea of a Kindle, I think I will wait until there is an e-paper version.
- Publishing fights back: pay walls and micropayments. In 2010, Deloitte says that traditional newspapers and magazines will continue to try to find ways they can charge for online content. I think this is an uphill battle for the newspapers and magazines. I can’t see paying for their content online when similar content is available for free.
- Music as a service rises up the charts. Deloitte says music on mobile devices will be hot and at the same time the major industry players will be experimenting more with subscription based music service offerings. I do see this as a growth area. However, my 3 year old iPod Nano serves my needs just fine.
- TV and the Web belong together, but not necessarily on the same screen. Deloitte says that the trend towards convergence of the TV/Web experience will continue. My vision is two screens on the wall side by side. That is how I work at my desk. I have a TV on the right side of my desk and a display monitor in the middle.
- Video-on-demand takes off – thanks to the vending machine. Deloitte says that while growth in the internet as a distribution channel for video content continues to grow, the revenue growth in the industry is all in the DVD vending machines.
- One step back, two steps forward for 3D TV. Deloitte implies that the success of the 3D version of Avatar will not necessarily translate into 3D TV growth. I don’t see myself buying a 3D TV anytime soon. In the long run, perhaps for gaming, but not for regular TV shows.
For more on the media predictions from Deloitte, you can download the summary report and/or the detailed report. For more on the Deloitte TMT predictions, you can check out the Deloitte TMT predictions website. There’s also the TMT 12 minute podcast.
I’ve embedded the summary report found on Slideshare.