Economy – Pickup in 2H09?

As I continue, like so many others, to look  for a job, the report from the National Association for Business Economics yesterday morning came as music to my ears.  The panel of 45 economics expects economic growth to rebound in the second half of 2009. And almost 75% of the survey respondents expect the recession to end by the end of 2009.  I thought I would provide a quick summary of their predictions in the table below:

GDP Growth

-1.8% in 2Q09, +1.2% for 2H09, -3.7% for FY09, +2.7% for FY10


$1.7T in 2009 falling to $1.4T in 2010


9.8% unemployment in 2009 down to 9.3% in 2010


Sales and housing starts to hit bottom in 1H09

Disagreement about timing of price bottoming out


Thrifty behavior to stay


Obtaining credit remains difficult despite actions from the FED to alleviate crunch

Next 5 years

Potential economic growth between 2.5% and 3%