The Massachusetts Institute of Technology's Technology Review (http://www.technologyreview.com/) has released its annual report on 10 Emerging Technologies of 2010. I always look forward to this annual article for it consistently reports on the interesting work going on in labs and academic institutions. The articles also provide a human element, telling us about the person behind the work, the problems they are trying to solve, and how they have worked hard to innovate in the field they are researching.
The list of 10 emerging technologies MIT presents in this article have the potential to create fundamental shifts in areas from energy to healthcare, computing to communications. Any one of them have the potential to significantly impact our lives.
Some of the listed technologies could reach the market within the year, others may take years, but all are expected to have a huge impact in the years ahead. Regardless of when they do hit the market, all of them are interesting to read and think about.
Here the list along with my summary and some links for more information.
Real-Time Search: Real-time search tools will help us filter out all the social and advertising noise and deliver to us the information we need when we need it. The article provides us insights into the work of Amit Singhal of Google, who is trying to develop up-to-the-second search results from social networks that offer the same relevance and quality we’ve come to expect from traditional Web searches. Check out Singhal’s page at http://singhal.info/
Mobile 3-D: Get ready for Mobile 3-D apps. The same buzz we are hearing today about how cool 3D movies and TVs are will make its way to smart phones. Researcher Julien Flack of Dynamic Digital Depth is working hard on developing technology that can convert existing 2-D content to 3-D on the fly.
Engineered Stem Cells: There’s more and more research going on these days into stem cells and scientists are figuring out ways of engineering stem cells. James Thomson of Cellular Dynamics and the University of Wisconsin is developing an innovative way to engineer stem cells in a test tube. His breakthroughs have the potential to revolutionize the way we study/treat diseases and develop beneficial drugs.
Solar Fuel: Scientists are working hard at developing alternative and renewable fuels. Biofuels is one alternative source of energy that may eventually compete with fossil fuels MIT provides us with insights into the biofuel research of Noubar Afeyan of Joule Biotechnologies. Afeyan and his team at Joule have successfully created genetically engineered micro-organisms that can turn sunlight into ethanol or diesel.
Light-Trapping Photovoltaics: Kylie Catchpole of the Australian National University is experimenting with ways to improve the overall potential of solar power as an alternative energy source. Catchpole has figured out how to use nanoparticles in a way to boost the efficiency of solar cells — an advance that could help make solar power more competitive with fossil fuels.
Social TV: It’s only a matter of time before we are able to combine, in real-time, our love for social networking with our love for our favorite TV shows. MIT’s Marie-José Montpetit is working on research related to embedding social networking activities into our TV watching experience.
Implantable Electronics: Future generations will benefit from nano-size drugs and electronic devices that can be implanted in our bodies and then dissolve after their job/task has been completed. Fiorenzo Omenetto from Tuft University has been researching implantable electronic devices that can be used to deliver drugs, stimulate nerves, monitor biomarkers, and more.
Dual-Action Antibodies: Reducing the number of drugs patients take can have beneficial impact on quality of life. Genentech’s Germaine Fuh is working on research related to using dual-action antibodies in drugs that can give patients two drugs for the price of one.
Cloud Programming: It’s safe to say that Joseph Hellerstein’s mind has been in the clouds lately. Hellerstein, of the University of California, Berkeley, has been working to create Cloud programming languages that help developers build better cloud applications. This work could lead to a new wave of Internet-enabled applications, including social media analysis, enterprise computing, or sensor networks monitoring for earthquake warning signs.
If you follow this blog regularly, you know I’ve been posting information on trends and predictions since early November. I do this every year as it helps me become better informed about what trends are emerging and could impact businesses.
Every year from November through February, you see lots of trends and prediction lists coming out. Many of the trends lists coming out are reputable…and some are a little off in ‘left field’. Here on HorizonWatching, I’ve tried to cut through noise and provide you with blog posts here covering the higher quality trends lists.
I’ve gathered all 72 of my posts, categorized and sorted them, and created the indexed table below.
These trends and prediction lists cover lots of different categories of emerging trends, technologies, and business issues. The focus is on trends impacting businesses, so you will see a few consumer oriented trends lists. By reading through them, you’ll get a flavor for what the most important trends will be in 2010.
By becoming more aware of the emerging trends, you will be in a better position to be prepared for the future. Enjoy!
Since 1990, Dr. James Canton, a futurist and founder of the Institute for Global Futures, has released an annual Global Futures Forecast 2010. These annual forecasts from Canton are always a little too sensational and dramatic in how the trends are worded. I know he does this just to ‘sell’ the trends list and pull people into his marketing engine. But if you ignore all that drama and read between the lines for the message of the key trend, the lists can be useful.
In this years report, Dr. Canton lists 20 trends that he says we need to watch in 2010 as these trends are transforming our lives today and will continue to do so for many years into the future. Here is my summary of the 20 trends. See below for a link to a 13 page pdf file wiht more detail.
Future Positive. We’ll once again look at the future in a positive way.
The Existential Consumer. Relationships have been strained between governments, business and individuals.
Business as Unusual. Expect some bold moves by businesses in 2010.
Design for a Better World. Canton says that giving back to others, social responsibility will emerge as a key trend this year. Perhaps the Haiti earthquake is the spark we needed.
Energy X. Canton says our future is tied to finding new sources of plentiful and cheap energy.
Asia Self-Reliance. Asian economies will increasingly rely on internal sources of growth and prosperity.
Personalized Medicine. Technology will start to deliver on the promise of personalized medicine.
The Neuro-Society. Canton expects 2010 to be a breakout year for neuroscience and that there will be broad-based impact.
Hungry Planet. Canton says there will be progress made towards a cooperative approach to solving food shortages, food security, and improving quality of life.
Products That Think. Canton says we’ll have more smart products as manufacturers embed chips into everything.
Social Capitalism Emerges. Canton says that efforts to remake capitalism into a populist or social welfare tool will fail.
Workforce Talent War. Canton expects that companies will have a talent shortage as increased complexity, competition and demands for performance drive the talent search…and talent wars.
Jobs and the Innovation Economy. Real job creation will not come from government but the private sector stepping up the innovation game.
Rogues Among Us. Canton says to watch out for rogue organizations that seek to destabilize the world’s security order.
Green Tech. Canton says there will be increased focus on helping nature help itself by geo-engineering the planet using science to protect the planet.
Internet Everywhere. Canton safely predicts that the Internet will be everywhere this year.
Tomorrow’s Markets. Canton points out that the emerging middle class in the developing world is a huge opportunity for all businesses.
Robots R Us. Canton says “The robots are coming!”.
Singularity Watch. Canton believes that Singularity discipline (the use of advanced science and technology to cope with planetary social challenges) will get increased attention in 2010
Reinventing Education. Canton says we need to reinvent Education to make it more relevant, modern and future-ready.
AdWeek recently published a list “Top Digital Trends for 2010” that provides an interesting perspective from the Advertising Industry’s point of view. When you think what has happened in the last 10 years from the advertising and media industry’s perspective, you realize their industry has been totally disrupted. Traditional business models that worked from the 50’s through the 90’s are all at risk as the digital world is rocking their boat.
Here’s my summary of AdWeek’s list of digital trends for 2010.
Content at Scale. AdWeek uses AOL as an example of a company that is trying to figure out how scale up to produce content that people (and advertisers) want at as low a price as possible.
The End of the Digital Agency. Adweek says line is blurring between digital and traditional ad agencies as the digital agencies try to scale up with new services and the traditional agencies develop expertise in the digital world.
Social Gaming. AdWeek uses examples like FourSquare and Zynga to demonstrate that people are spending real money on virtual goods and services. Marketers need to learn how to leverage this trend in their marketing efforts.
Demand-Side Platforms. Adweek says that in 2010, internet advertising will remain inefficient to buy and sell, but there are some innovations that could disrupt the digital publishing landscape with more automation.
Engagement Pricing. In 2010, we should all expect some progress to be made in the area of new pricing mechanisms that better reflect goals of the ad strategy.
Augmented Reality Grows Up. Adweek expects AR and mobile to converge in 2010 to provide an array of useful services.
Social Media Morphs into Digital. 2010 will be the year when publishers and marketers will look at social as an integral part of their digital strategy, rather than a stand-alone area for experimentation.
Privacy Wars. AdWeek expects that focus on consumer privacy to heat up again in 2010 as consumer’s demand more ways to opt-out of ads they don’t want and opt-out of all the ad tracking tools.
Data Gets Creative. AdWeek says that in 2010, more and more advertisers will integrate data visualization technologies into their programs in order to help consumer find interesting trends and then act on that information
The Year of Mobile, Finally. AdWeek says after many years of predicting that mobile advertising will take off, 2010 should be the inflection point, thanks to location-based services.
All ten trends are ones that will be interesting to watch. I’m especially going to be watching #3, #7, and #10. For more detail behind each of the ten trends above, check out AdWeek’s article at Top Digital Trends for 2010
I subscribe to the IBM Smart SOA Newsletter, a monthly e-newsletter sent out by IBM. The newsletter always provides interesting articles on current information in Service Oriented Architecture (SOA) and related trends in Business Process Management (BPM).
Today I opened the most recent newsletter in my in-basket. This article has an interesting lead article on Smart Work that I thought you’d enjoy. You can see the full online version at IBM Smart SOA Newletter. Here’s a list of the articles in the current issue:
Ideas for innovation from the Smart Work Jam: On September 16-18, 2009, IBM hosted the Smart Work Jam, engaging industry and university thought leaders, clients, Business Partners and IBMers to discuss how we can work smarter together. For 72 hours, more than 2,000 participants from 68 countries “jammed” with nearly 5,000 posts across seven topics. The Smart Work Jam Report, which details the results of that conversation, is now available. Access the article here Ideas for innovation from the Smart Work Jam
Other Articles Include:
Impact 2010: Impact is a great conference for both business and IT leaders. It will be held May 2-5 in Las Vegas. Read article here.
BPM BlueWorks Adds Resources For Process Improvement: How organizations in 90 countries are jump starting Business Process management Read article here
An Approach For Working Smarter in Retail: Use it to improve supply chains, customer loyalty and margins. Read article here
Business Process Management Software News: IBM closes its acquisition of Lombardi Software. Read article here.
New Electronic Support: New consolidated, customizable online tools for full technical info. Access a webcast series describing the new features. Read article here
If you are interested in SOA and BPM topics, you’d enjoy the newsletter. The newsletter has been delivered monthly since January 2007 and is full of the latest information, best practices, technical tips, resources and more, on service oriented architecture (SOA).
About a week or so ago I attended the IDC Manufacturing Insights conference call where IDC outlined its 2010 Predictions for Product Life Cycle Management. On the call Joe Barkai, IDC PLM Practice Director and Benjamin Friedman, IDC PLM Research Manager took the conference call attendees through IDC’s predictions and trends for the Manufacturing PLM market.
Here’s my summary of IDCs top trends in PLM
Innovation and Business Alignment. In 2010, IDC says there will be an increased focus on aligning PLM innovation with business strategy, making sure innovation is ‘productive’ and is helping the company achieve growth.
Enterprise PLM is Maturing. IDC is saying that PLM is becoming an important factor in the entire enterprise decision-making discipline, but more progress is needed to integrate all manufacturing systems across the organization.
Socializing” Product Development: Social computing has had an impact in marketing and support. In 2010, we should all expect the social computing trend to have an impact on product development. Innovative firms will figure this out in 2010.
Rising Demand for PLM Value: IDC says that in 2010, PLM vendors need to demonstrate value and relevance. IDC is encouraging vendors to emphasize integration, interoperability and open source.
Visualization for Better Decision-Making: Decision makers need to see the information in new and different ways in order to help them make better decisions. Expect an increasing emphasis on the importance of making sense of all the data collected and stored via advanced analytics and visualization tools.
Technical Content is Back. IDC says there will be an effort by companies to introduce new technical related services and improve the quality of existing services as a way to differentiate their products.
Factory of the Future. Smarter and more intelligent manufacturing is a big trend. IDC says to expect an increased interest by manufacturing companies in the area of intelligent factory networks that can “design anywhere, build anywhere, sell & service anywhere”.
Beyond Discrete Manufacturing. IDC believes that PLM software can and will be implemented in some non-traditional areas, like process manufacturing, retail and consumer goods, and perhaps even financial services.
PLM in the Cloud. IDC says adoption of enterprise cloud-based PLM solutions will slowly begin to take off. All the right drivers are in place and many of the concerns are being resolved.
M&As to Close Gaps. IDC says that given the economic climate, some firms will take the opportunity to merge and / or acquire other firms in order to build scale and/or access new markets.
Personally, I’d like to see a lot of focus on prediction number 3. I don’t see many firms leveraging social computing yet as a way to innovate the product development process.
Earlier this week, Gartner released a report “Predicts 2010: Social Software Is an Enterprise Reality” in which the analyst firm provides some predictions on what is in store for social collaboration software in 2010 and the years ahead. Increasingly, businesses are finding that applications like Twitter and Facebook can provide value. That is translating into increased adoption of social collaboration platforms by enterprises of all sizes.
Here’s my summary of 5 predictions Gartner offers in the report:
Bye Bye Email?: Gartner says social networking will prove to be a more productive tool for many types of communications. Gartner’s prediction: By 2014, social networking services will replace e-mail as the primary vehicle for interpersonal communications for 20 percent of business users.
Internal Microblogging Efforts Fail: The scale of Twitter is so large, enterprise users will find it more valuable than internal microblogging platforms. Gartner’s prediction: By 2012, over 50 percent of enterprises will use activity streams that include microblogging, but stand-alone enterprise microblogging will have less than 5 percent penetration.
IT-Led Social Media Projects Fail: Gartner says that IT departments just don’t have the skill set to design and deliver an social media solution. Gartner’s prediction: Through 2012, over 70 percent of IT-dominated social media initiatives will fail, while only 50% of business-led initiatives will fail.
Mobile Apps To Influence Desktop Apps: Gartner says that IT departments will learn new ways of developing apps for SmartPhones and be able to use that knowledge to design better apps for desktops. Gartner’s prediction: Within five years, 70 percent of collaboration and communications applications designed on PCs will be modeled after user experience lessons from smartphone collaboration applications.
Enterprises Slow To Adopt Social Network Analysis: Gartner says SNA tools will remain an untapped source of insight in most organizations. Gartner’s prediction: Through 2015, only 25 percent of enterprises will routinely utilize social network analysis to improve performance and productivity.
Scientific American published an article back in December titled “World Changing Ideas” that caught my eye. The article provides a laundry list of ideas that Scientific American says have the potential to improve our lives and our planet. The magazine has been running similar articles on an annual basis for a number of years.
The December article covers ideas in five general categories (Energy,Transportation, Environment, Electronics, and Health) that highlight the power of science and technology to improve the world.
Here’s a summary of some of the 20 ideas from this article
Pay for solar panels on your house like you pay for a house mortgage.
Biofuels from genetically engineered plants.
Innovations in Nuclear Power production that can stem nuclear proliferation
Smart meters in the home
Wind Power harvested from a fleet of high-flying giant kites or windmills
Plug-in hybrid trucks for short-haul cargo trips
Subway-like bus lines
Someday the oceans might be regulated by a worldwide marine planning and zoning committee
Harvesting energy trapped in garbage via a technology called plasma gasification
Cement that naturally absorbs carbon dioxide as it hardens
Introducing new honeybee colonies to our farms
Developing crops that can handle saltwater
HP’s Central Nervous System for the Earth (CeNSE) project
Smartphones that can act as real-time language translators
Advances in Personal Robotics
Biomarkers can help understand the causes of complex diseases
Satellites can help track and predict the spread of diseases
Better and cheaper ways to help blood clot quicker
Performing blood tests in real time by putting a drop of blood on a computer chip
Innovations in dental care.
The 20 ideas above are all interesting and innovative trends in science and technology. Some I would say are more ‘world changing’ than other ideas. And I am sure we could all come up with another 20 trends / ideas in science that are not listed above.
There’s much more detail in the article. Scientific American articles are available to subscribers only, but at the time of the writing of this post, I found the article at Scribd here: http://www.scribd.com/doc/23475128/20-World-Changing-Ideas. Also…you can listen to a podcast where Scientific American magazine Editor in Chief Mariette DiChristina and editor Michael Moyer talk about the "World Changing Ideas" feature ( Download this podcast ).
There was an article published at the end of December that I thought those in interested in the venture capital trends for 2010 might want to read. The article appeared on the VentureBeat site and was written by two partners at Grotech Ventures. It caught my eye as it discussed where money might be flowing in 2010.
A quick summary of the article:
Social Media. The authors say that social media will be a hot sector. While there are still many questions about how to monetize the conversational and real-time nature of social media, the authors expects social media to move towards profitability in 2010.
Cloud Computing. The authors expect money to continue to flow to the cloud in 2010. The financial value of cost savings, infrastructure savings and productivity enhancement will drive continued investment.
Prosumer Technologies. The authors say this space will fizzle in 2010 and we will see a re-separation of consumer and professional devices, having a trickle-down effect on the ecosystems of startup companies developing for the iPhone, Droid, and other platforms. It’s interesting to read this view as Deloitte recently came out with their 2010 Technology Predictions (Deloitte: Seven Technology Predictions for 2010), and one of those predictions was that the Prosumer trend will continue to be hot and cause disruption for IT departments.
Freemium Model. The authors say that start-ups should understand that the gap between free and paying customers is widening. As customer attention spans shorten, their brand loyalty diminishes as well. Users tend to move move on to the next trendy, free offering. This will put pressure on providers to innovate at an incredibly rapid pace in order to keep pace with market demand. For more on the freemium business model, see Wikipedia’s article on Freemium.
Mobile is such a megatrend. Mobile technologies, applications and services will be big a big story in 2010 and this shift in computing will impact our lives forever. That is a fact we can not deny. So I have my radar tuned to any content that helps me understand the underlying drivers and trends.
AdAge recently had an article titled Five Mobile Trends for 2010 that caught my eye. It provides us with a perspective of the mobile megatrend from those in the advertising industry. The two authors Dan Neumann (Organic) and Allison Mooney (MobileBehavior) have been focusing on the mobility trend and the impact it will have on advertising. The article provides their thoughts on the key trends.
Here’s my summary of the five trends they see…
Local Advertising. Mobile will completely revolutionize the way local advertisers can connect with potential customers.Mobile search and location based services will allow small local retailers and service providers to reach consumers like they’ve never
Shopping Applications. The growth in adoption of mobile shopping applications (apps such as price comparison, user product reviews, coupons) will continue to alter in-store consumer behavior.
Branded Apps and Display Media. The authors expect that brands and agencies will continue to build their own branded apps. However thanks to Google, they will also have more attractive display media options. The authors say to watch out for Google as it attempts to one-up the iPhone app experience.
Outdoor Advertising. The authors give a few examples of where mobile users can now interact with outdoor ads and signage, opening up a whole new set of opportunities for advertisers.
Social Provides Instant Feedback. Social technologies give users the ability to express their opinions anywhere, anytime. Companies need to figure out how to embrace this as part of their marketing process, encouraging and acting on the real-time feedback.
Some interesting trends along with a unique perspective from the advertising industry. I think it is safe to say that Google has an iron-clad plan to grab their share of the mobile advertising market.
My last two posts provided a summary of technology predictions and media predictions from Deloitte’s Technology, Media & Telecommunications (TMT) Industry group. In this post I will provide a summary of Deloitte’s predictions for the Telecommunications Industry.
The topics covered in this year's report include the growing importance of mobile search for smartphones, changes in network technologies and pricing plans to cope with the explosion of data, and changes in the scale of wireless contracts both in terms of up-time and duration.
Here’s my summary of Deloitte’s telecommunications predictions for 2010
The smartphone becomes a search-phone. Mobile search will most certainly become one of the hottest mobile apps and it will be a critical part of any future mobile platform. The next few years will be exciting and first mover advantage will be critical.
Mobile VoIP becomes a social network. Deloitte says that 2010 could be an inflection year for mobile VoIP. However, I won’t be holding my breath. I think its still a few years away….but I do agree it will be driven by Facebook (and perhaps Twitter) users.
Widening the bottleneck. Telecom technology helps decongest the mobile network. Deloitte says technologies that help speed up wireless networks should experience healthy growth in 2010. With all the millions of devices accessing networks, there’s bound to be congestion problems.
Paying for what we eat. Carriers change data pricing and make regulators happy. Similar to trends we are seeing in highway congestion charging, Deloitte says to expect carriers to start billing customers based on how much data they use, when they use it, and also what kind of data is being used.
Nixing the nines: reliability redefined and reassessed. Deloitte says since enterprises are exploring ways to save money, they will begin to tolerate lower service levels on non-priority services and applications.
Contract 2.0: long-term solutions shorten and multiply. Deloitte says that while demand for telco solutions will increase, the continued enterprise focus on cost savings will drive shorter contract terms.
The line goes leaner. And greener. Expect a focus by the telecommunications industry on reducing C02 emissions, with the main driver for that focus being cost savings (rather than a desire to improve the environment).
My last post provided a summary of seven technology predictions from Deloitte’s Technology, Media & Telecommunications (TMT) Industry group. In this post I will provide a summary of Deloitte’s predictions for the media industry.
Deloitte covers a wide range of topics in these predictions, including demand for on-demand TV, the integration of television and the web and the short-term prospects for 3D television.
Here’s my summary of Deloitte’s eight predictions for media…
Linear's got legs: the television and radio schedule stays supreme. Deloitte says that most content will continue to be consumed according to broadcasters' programming schedules. I’d have to agree here, I don’t see this changing dramatically in 2010…or for the next few years.
The shift to online advertising: more selective, but the trend continues. Deloitte sees this trend accelerating and as a result advertisers will look for better ways to measure the effectiveness of advertising online.
eReaders fill a niche, but eBooks fly off the (virtual) shelves. Deloitte says that eReaders will not have a breakout year, but we should expect more and more users to download eBooks to their current devices. For myself, I do find myself downloading e-books every once in a while to my desktop. But only to skim them, not to read them like I would a book. While I like the general idea of a Kindle, I think I will wait until there is an e-paper version.
Publishing fights back: pay walls and micropayments. In 2010, Deloitte says that traditional newspapers and magazines will continue to try to find ways they can charge for online content. I think this is an uphill battle for the newspapers and magazines. I can’t see paying for their content online when similar content is available for free.
Music as a service rises up the charts. Deloitte says music on mobile devices will be hot and at the same time the major industry players will be experimenting more with subscription based music service offerings. I do see this as a growth area. However, my 3 year old iPod Nano serves my needs just fine.
TV and the Web belong together, but not necessarily on the same screen. Deloitte says that the trend towards convergence of the TV/Web experience will continue. My vision is two screens on the wall side by side. That is how I work at my desk. I have a TV on the right side of my desk and a display monitor in the middle.
Video-on-demand takes off – thanks to the vending machine. Deloitte says that while growth in the internet as a distribution channel for video content continues to grow, the revenue growth in the industry is all in the DVD vending machines.
One step back, two steps forward for 3D TV. Deloitte implies that the success of the 3D version of Avatar will not necessarily translate into 3D TV growth. I don’t see myself buying a 3D TV anytime soon. In the long run, perhaps for gaming, but not for regular TV shows.