My last post provided a summary of seven technology predictions from Deloitte’s Technology, Media & Telecommunications (TMT) Industry group. In this post I will provide a summary of Deloitte’s predictions for the media industry.
Deloitte covers a wide range of topics in these predictions, including demand for on-demand TV, the integration of television and the web and the short-term prospects for 3D television.
Here’s my summary of Deloitte’s eight predictions for media…
Linear's got legs: the television and radio schedule stays supreme. Deloitte says that most content will continue to be consumed according to broadcasters' programming schedules. I’d have to agree here, I don’t see this changing dramatically in 2010…or for the next few years.
The shift to online advertising: more selective, but the trend continues. Deloitte sees this trend accelerating and as a result advertisers will look for better ways to measure the effectiveness of advertising online.
eReaders fill a niche, but eBooks fly off the (virtual) shelves. Deloitte says that eReaders will not have a breakout year, but we should expect more and more users to download eBooks to their current devices. For myself, I do find myself downloading e-books every once in a while to my desktop. But only to skim them, not to read them like I would a book. While I like the general idea of a Kindle, I think I will wait until there is an e-paper version.
Publishing fights back: pay walls and micropayments. In 2010, Deloitte says that traditional newspapers and magazines will continue to try to find ways they can charge for online content. I think this is an uphill battle for the newspapers and magazines. I can’t see paying for their content online when similar content is available for free.
Music as a service rises up the charts. Deloitte says music on mobile devices will be hot and at the same time the major industry players will be experimenting more with subscription based music service offerings. I do see this as a growth area. However, my 3 year old iPod Nano serves my needs just fine.
TV and the Web belong together, but not necessarily on the same screen. Deloitte says that the trend towards convergence of the TV/Web experience will continue. My vision is two screens on the wall side by side. That is how I work at my desk. I have a TV on the right side of my desk and a display monitor in the middle.
Video-on-demand takes off – thanks to the vending machine. Deloitte says that while growth in the internet as a distribution channel for video content continues to grow, the revenue growth in the industry is all in the DVD vending machines.
One step back, two steps forward for 3D TV. Deloitte implies that the success of the 3D version of Avatar will not necessarily translate into 3D TV growth. I don’t see myself buying a 3D TV anytime soon. In the long run, perhaps for gaming, but not for regular TV shows.
Every year, Deloitte’s Technology, Media & Telecommunications (TMT) Industry group publishes a set of predictions for the coming year. So I was interested in taking a look at what was on their list for 2010 predictions.
High on the list of predictions is the continued impact of the consumerization of IT, especially the trend where employees want their consumer devices to be able to access the corporate network. Other hot trends include the rapid rise of mobile VOIP, mobile search, and advances in green technologies.
The Deloitte TMT team actually provides prediction lists in each of the three areas (Technology, Media & Telecommunications. In this post I will focus on the predictions for Technology and save the media and telecommunications predictions for a potential future post.
Here’s a summary of Deloitte’s technology predictions
Smaller Than A Netbook And Bigger Than A Smartphone: Net Tablets Arrive: While the buzz last year was on netbooks, Deloitte says tablets will be the big story of 2010
Moore’s Law Is Alive And Well In 2010. Deloitte predicts the focus will be on developing chips that use less electricity, cost less, and are smaller.
Cloud Computing: More Than Hype, But Less Than Hyper. Deloitte says growth will be strongest in consumer and SMB segments and has advice for cloud providers trying to reach large enterprise and government clients.
Thinking Thin Is In Again: Virtual Desktop Infrastructures (VDI) Challenge The PC. Deloitte says 2010 could be a breakout year for VDI, with over 1million seats going thin.
IT Procurement Stands On ITs Head. IT will need to be more flexible as employees want their consumer devices to be able to access the corporate network.
CleanTech Makes A Comeback, But Solar Stays In The Shadows. Deloitte says Cleantech investments will grow in 2010, thanks in part to government spending.
From Gray To Green: Technology Reinvents Cement. IT’s impact on reducing global CO2 emissions and construction costs can be significant.
With the Apple announcement looking like it is going to happen this week, I guess prediction number one is all lined up and ready to be realized. The other 6 are good predictions/trends to highlight. Numbers 6 and 7 are important, but I’m not sure our governments will continue to plow stimulus dollars into the economy.
Here’s a view from the UK. Deloitte just published results from their most recent survey of UK CFOs. The Deloitte CFO Survey, launched in September 2007, is a quarterly survey of CFOs and Group Finance Directors of major UK companies. 128 large enterprise CFOs took part in the latest survey, carried out in December 2009.
Here’s a summary of the results
CFO optimism about the financial prospects for their companies has reached the highest level since the Deloitte CFO Survey began over two years ago;
CFO concerns about shortages of liquidity and credit have reduced substantially, indicating that the liquidity and funding crisis has eased;
78% CFOs think the UK banking system is strong enough to sustain the recovery;
Nonetheless, fears of an economic “double dip” are widespread;
48% of CFOs cite the economy as their biggest concern in 2010;
CFOs’ top priorities for 2010 are reducing costs and increasing cash flow
But CFOs are also implementing expansionary strategies to boost revenues and capitalize on renewed growth in the economy;
CFOs rate equity and bond issuance as offering far more attractive ways to finance their businesses than borrowing from banks.
Deloitte and the NVCA released their annual Venture Capital global survey findings last month. The report found that (not surprising) VC firms have been cutting back in their funding of startups. While it has been a difficult recession, the industry is making some adjustments.
Some summary findings
Portfolio Pruning. 51% are decreasing the number of companies in which they plan to invest and just 13 percent are increasing this activity.
Cleantech: The clean tech sector is poised to become the leading investment category. Overall 60% of respondents say that cleantech investments are on the rise. Among U.S., UK and Israeli investors, about half expect to increase their investments in cleantech, while about seven out of 10 AP respondents and European respondents expect their cleantech investments to increase.
Globalization: Globalization of the venture capital industry will intensify in coming years, posing significant competitive questions for the United States, and opportunities for emerging markets such as China.
Regional Investments: Investment levels are more likely to increase in countries outside the United States. Governments of all countries have a crucial role to play in fostering competitiveness and innovation. Specific findings include that 52% of the survey respondents are currently investing outside their home countries. 19% of respondents expressed that investment levels will rise in Israel, 50% believe that investment will increase in Asia (excluding India); 43% in India; 36% in South America; 25% in Europe and the UK; and 17% in North America.
Government: 66% of venture capitalists would like a tax break from their respective governments. 40% believe that government support for entrepreneurial activity is important; 31% would like governments to encourage more active public markets; and 29 percent believe improved access to private capital sources will help better support innovation.
Investment Timing: According to 51% of the VCs, now is a good time to invest. Only 6 percent believe that it is not a good time to make investments.
The 2009 Global Venture Capital Survey was conducted in the first quarter of 2009 and measured the opinions of more than 700 venture capitalists worldwide. To view the full survey results visit: 2009 Global Trends in Venture Capital