HorizonWatching Newspaper: Daily Recap of Emerging Trends, Technologies, and Business Issues

A few weeks ago I started publishing The HorizonWatching Daily via paper.li.  I thought I’d give it a try and so far I like it.

It takes the links those I am following on Twitter and pulls those stories into a newspaper-like format.   Most of those I am following are professional futurists or have something to do with emerging trends, technologies and business issues. Thanks to all those I am following for their link-sharing and content.

Here’s the URL to the online paper http://paper.li/horizonwatching.   I’ve also embedded the latest issue here.  Take a look.


About HorizonWatching

Profile pic from TwitterWhat is HorizonWatching?:   HorizonWatching was launched in 2006 to encourage sharing information and collaborating about emerging trends, technologies, and business issues that will impact businesses of all sizes in the future.  We’re also interested in discussing how businesses plan for the future.  So what is your vision of the future for the business/technology topic that you are focused on?

About Me: I’m an IBMer who is interested in understanding the potential futures that await us.  I’ve spent most of my career in marketing research and strategy roles.  So, I like to do research on emerging trends, technologies and business issues.  Anything I say or do related to the HorizonWatching effort is my own work and does represent the views of the company I work for (IBM).   I won’t bore you here with my background.  For more on me, see my LinkedIn Profile: http://www.linkedin.com/in/whchamb

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Dr. James Canton: Top 20 Trends That Will Shape the World in the Next Year

Canton - Global Futures Forecast 2010 Since 1990, Dr. James Canton, a futurist and founder of the Institute for Global Futures, has released an annual Global Futures Forecast 2010.  These annual forecasts from Canton are always a little too sensational and dramatic in how the trends are worded.  I know he does this just to ‘sell’ the trends list and pull people into his marketing engine.  But if you ignore all that drama and read between the lines for the message of the key trend, the lists can be useful. 

In this years report, Dr. Canton lists 20 trends that he says we need to watch in 2010 as these trends are transforming our lives today and will continue to do so for many years into the future.  Here is my summary of the 20 trends. See below for a link to a 13 page pdf file wiht more detail.

  1. Future Positive.  We’ll once again look at the future in a positive way.
  2. The Existential Consumer.  Relationships have been strained between governments, business and individuals.
  3. Business as Unusual.  Expect some bold moves by businesses in 2010.
  4. Design for a Better World.  Canton says that giving back to others, social responsibility will emerge as a key trend this year.  Perhaps the Haiti earthquake is the spark we needed.
  5. Energy X.  Canton says our future is tied to finding new sources of plentiful and cheap energy.
  6. Asia Self-Reliance.  Asian economies will increasingly rely on internal sources of growth and prosperity.
  7. Personalized Medicine.  Technology will start to deliver on the promise of personalized medicine.
  8. The Neuro-Society.  Canton expects 2010 to be a breakout year for neuroscience and that there will be broad-based impact.
  9. Hungry Planet.  Canton says there will be progress made towards a cooperative approach to solving food shortages, food security, and improving quality of life.
  10. Products That Think.  Canton says we’ll have more smart products as manufacturers embed chips into everything.
  11. Social Capitalism Emerges.  Canton says that efforts to remake capitalism into a populist or social welfare tool will fail. 
  12. Workforce Talent War.  Canton expects that companies will have a talent shortage as increased complexity, competition and demands for performance drive the talent search…and talent wars.
  13. Jobs and the Innovation Economy.  Real job creation will not come from government but the private sector stepping up the innovation game.
  14. Rogues Among Us.   Canton says to watch out for rogue organizations that seek to destabilize the world’s security order.
  15. Green Tech.  Canton says there will be increased focus on helping nature help itself by geo-engineering the planet using science to protect the planet. 
  16. Internet Everywhere.  Canton safely predicts that the Internet will be everywhere this year.
  17. Tomorrow’s Markets.  Canton points out that the emerging middle class in the developing world is a huge opportunity for all businesses.
  18. Robots R Us.  Canton says “The robots are coming!”.
  19. Singularity Watch.  Canton believes that Singularity discipline (the use of advanced science and technology to cope with planetary social challenges) will get increased attention in 2010
  20. Reinventing Education.  Canton says we need to reinvent Education to make it more relevant, modern and future-ready.

For a 13 page pdf file that covers the 20 trends, check out Global Futures Forecast 2010

Looking to 2050: Ten Challenges For The Human Race

Peter Schwartz is recognized internationally as a futurist and strategist.  He honed his skills at Royal Dutch/Shell Group in London, where he led a widely respected scenario planning effort.   He has written a number of interesting books about the future, including The Art of the Long View. 

This past May he gave the commencement address at Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute.  During the address, he outlined ten longer term challenges for the human race as we look forward to the next 40-50 years.  He encouraged the graduates to come up with innovative solutions to these challenges. 

The top challenges Schwartz outlined are:

  1. Creating long-term solutions to meet our energy demands sustainably.
  2. Launching a bio-industrial revolution with sustainable manufacturing.
  3. Understanding and enhancing the human brain to avert age-related impairments.
  4. Improving agriculture to reduce costs and increase its energy and water efficiency.
  5. Building sustainable cities through better urban planning and "smart architecture”.
  6. Stimulating job growth and economic development.
  7. Fusing the technological with the spiritual and aesthetic dimensions of human culture.
  8. Advancing technological instruments to drive scientific discovery forward.
  9. Harnessing biological tools to advance human evolution.
  10. Discovering new ways to lower the costs and environmental impact of space flight and development.  

The list above is an interesting list.  I am not sure that these are the top ten most important challenges, but each of the above ten are certainly important. 

Some comments…

  • Energy tops his list and it is hard to argue that it should not be there.  I can’t see the demand for energy going down anytime soon and we need to figure out how to transition to clean energy. 
  • Improving agriculture processes in developing nations will have have a significant impact on the economy and quality of life.
  • Building smarter and sustainable cities is a very large challenge as the number of megacities grow and grow.
  • Number 9 on his list, “Harnessing biological tools to advance human evolution” sounds both scary and beneficial at the same time.
  • Regarding number 10, with announced plans to go back to the moon and to Mars, we will need innovative ways to travel through space and live at the destinations we travel to.

It is worth pointing out that many on the list kind of fall under the push for a smarter planet.

If you want to read a transcript of Peter Schwartz’s commencement address, check out http://news.rpi.edu/update.do?artcenterkey=2585

Can you think of any other challenges Schwartz’s list?  The only one that comes to my mind right now is the never ending desire to live in a world free from war and conflict, but I don’t suppose for one minute that that will be solved in the next 40-50 years.

A Primer on Futurists

As organizations increasingly try to grapple with the seemingly endless scorching rate of technological innovation and change, more are engaging the services of self-described futurists for advice on how to adapt.

What Is A Futurist?

Basically, futurists are those who look to and provide analysis and insights on potential futures.  They help others anticipate and prepare for potential changes and disruptions in order to make better decisions today.   Think of futurists as in the same league as historians.  Futurists explore the future, just as historians study the past.   Historians are  concerned with origins, roots, stories/points of view of where we have been in the past and how we got to where we are today.   Futurists are interested in emerging trends, technologies, goals, purposes.  In short, futurists are interested in where we might be going in the future and how we can get there.   It’s interesting to note that in many cases good futurists have a little bit of a historian inside of them (e.g. studying the past can help predict potential futures.)

 

What Do Futurists Do?

Futurists research and explore the full range of potential / plausible futures.  A futures consultant or facilitator helps clients expand their typically narrower focus on the future to a broader range of possibilities.  They forecast the future, not just to know the future as an abstract description, but rather to prepare for it as a concrete reality.
The objective is not just to know what will happen, but to be ready whatever does happen.  The objective is not necessarily to be exactly right (which is impossible), but rather not to be wrong–that is, not to be surprised.  Surprise means inadequate preparation, late response, higher risk of failure, even chaos or panic.  Thus, preparing for the full range of plausible futures is the objective of futures studies.

Futurists take an inter-disciplinary approach and employ a wide range of methods, from trend analysis to scenario planning, to simulations, to strategic planning and visioning.  Since the future does not exist, we must study ideas about the future. Futurists use data from the past and present, and our concepts and methods to understand how the present will evolve into possible alternative futures. We also borrow liberally from other fields, such as creativity, complexity science, organization development, systems analysis, and philosophy.

What Type Of BackGround Do Futurists Have?

Futurists come from a wide range of backgrounds. What they have in common is big picture thinking, strong pattern recognition, and innate curiosity.
Futurists come from a wide range of backgrounds and walks of life, be it liberal arts, psychology, engineering, the sciences. A growing number are coming from the dozen or so futures degree programs worldwide.
Other characteristics typical of futurists include openness to new experiences, comfort with ambiguity, thinking systematically, seeing options and alternatives, questioning and challenging assumptions, a global outlook, a long-term time horizon, optimistic, and having a sense of purpose.

How Can I Train To Become A Futurist?

The formal study of the future goes by a number of names, including “Strategic Foresight”, “Futures Studies”, and “Prospective Studies”. 

Formal futurist higher education options are somewhat limited.  There are about a dozen degree programs worldwide.   Within the United States there are two main academic programs created that focus on training futurists 1) the University of Houston (M.S.) and  2) University of Hawaii (M.A. and Ph.D.).  Both programs have been around for over 30 years.

Futurists without the formal education learn on the job through professional development.  Many professionals become futurists by acquainting themselves with futures concepts, tools and methods, familiarizing themselves with the literature, and participating in futures conferences and organizations.

What Professional Networks Are There?

Here are some places to go to find more information….

  • World Future Society  20-25,000 members who subscribe to The Futurist magazine and attend annual meetings; mostly centered in the U.S.  www.wfs.org
  • World Futures Studies Federation   Several hundred members spread across the globe with a rotating secretariat, includes many academics  www.wfsf.org
  • Millennium Project  Volunteer group around the globe that produces the annual State of the Future report and other futures studies, as well as the Futures Research Methodology.  www.millennium-project.org 
  • Association of Professional Futurists  200+ professional futurists and students in futures degree programs.  http://www.profuturists.org/
  • The World Future Council.  http://www.worldfuturecouncil.org. The World Future Council brings the interests of future generations to the centre of policy making.  The Council addresses challenges to our common future and provides decision-makers with effective policy solutions.

Being a futurist sure sounds like fun….and there might just be a future for futurists.  🙂

APF: Top Ten Published Futures Works

Looking for some books to read this summer?  Well, the books on the list below are not necessarily the type of books you would take on that beach vacation you are planning.  No thrilling mysteries on this list.

However, the books on this list were voted the top ten classic works in the area of Futures Work.  So if you are interested in learning more about how to understand the future, you might want to check out one or more on the following ‘classics’.

The Association of Professional Futurists (www.profuturists.org/) is a community of professional futurists who are all interested in understanding and influencing the future.   Recently, the membership voted on a list of what they called ‘classics’ in the topic of Futures related work.  Here is the “top ten” in order of votes received, along with a description of the work.

  1. Art of the Long View by Peter Schwartz.  Amazon description:  “Presenting a revolutionary approach to developing strategic vision in business and in life, a guide for managers, entrepreneurs, and investors explains how to apply creative and intuitive skills to corporate practices.”
  2. Foundations of Futures Studies: Human Science for a New Era by Wendell Bell.  Amazon description: “Author Wendell Bell brings together futurist intellectual tools, describing and explaining not only the methods, but also the nature, concepts, theories, and exemplars of the field.  Bell illustrates how this sphere of intellectual activity offers hope for the future of humanity and concrete ways of realizing that hope in the real world of everyday life. His book will appeal to all interested in futures studies, sociology, economics, political science, and history.”
  3. The Knowledge Base of Futures Studies, edited by Richard Slaughter.  Website description:  “This CD ROM presents an up-to-date international overview of futures studies and applied foresight.  Readers can access some of the core material of the field produced not only by well-known authors but also by many who live beyond the main centers in Europe and the USA.”
  4. Limits to Growth by Donnella H. Meadows, Dennis L. Meadows, Jergen L. Randers and William H. Behrens.  Amazon description:  “offers a pessimistic view of the natural resources available for the world's population. Using extensive computer models based on population, food production, pollution and other data, the authors demonstrate why the world is in a potentially dangerous "overshoot" situation.  Put simply, overshoot means people have been steadily using up more of the Earth's resources without replenishing its supplies.”
  5. The State of the World (series) by The Worldwatch Institute.  Website description:  “State of the World is the authoritative and comprehensive series that is mapping out what an environmentally sustainable society will look like.  Produced by the award-winning Worldwatch Institute, it has become an indispensable guide for national leaders as well as concerned citizens everywhere.   The topics in the 1998 volume include an assessment of the world's forests, an analysis of the decline of fisheries around the world, a survey of all five major groups of vertebrate fauna that are facing severe stress, and the financial aspects of sustainable development.”
  6. The State of the Future by Jerome Glenn and Ted Gordon.   Website description:  “Produced by the Millennium Project, under the auspices of the World Federation of UN Associations (WFUNA), the State of the Future report contains insights into the Project’s work from a variety of creative and knowledgeable people, obtaining information from and getting feed back on emerging crises, opportunities, strategic priorities and the feasibility of actions.”
  7. The Art of Conjecture by Bertrand de Jouvenel   Website description:  “Originally written in French, this is a classic work on the topic of probability.  It was published in 1713 and shows how de Jouvenel derived the form of the binomial distribution.”
  8. Futures Research Methodology by Jerome Glenn and Ted Gordon   Amazon description:  “Comprehensive and internationally peer-reviewed handbook on tools and methods for forecasting and analysis of global change.  Each chapter in this series gives an executive overview of each method's history, description, primary and alternative usages, strengths and weaknesses, use in combination with other methods, and speculation about future usage.”
  9. The Age of Spiritual Machines by Ray Kurzweil   Amazon description:   “Kurzweil, artificial intelligence expert shows that technological evolution moves at an exponential pace.  Further, he asserts, in a sort of swirling postulate, time speeds up as order increases, and vice versa.  He calls this the "Law of Time and Chaos," and it means that although entropy is slowing the stream of time down for the universe overall, and thus vastly increasing the amount of time between major events, in the eddy of technological evolution the exact opposite is happening, and events will soon be coming faster and more furiously.”
  10. Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed by Jared Diamond   Amazon description.  “The book examines why ancient societies, including the Anasazi of the American Southwest and the Viking colonies of Greenland, as well as modern ones such as Rwanda, have fallen apart.  Not every collapse has an environmental origin, but an eco-meltdown is often the main catalyst, he argues, particularly when combined with society's response to (or disregard for) the coming disaster.”

Well, like I said, these are not for light reading.  For those of you who are building your library of futures related books, I hope this list helps you get started.

THE FUTURIST: Ten Forecasted Trends

THE FUTURIST is a bi-monthly magazine published by the  World Future Society'.   The Nov-Dec 2008 edition's cover story is "Outlook 2009".  In the magazine, there is a list of Top Ten Forecasts for 2009 and beyond.

The FUTURIST always has a flair for dramatic, attention-grabbing prediction/forecasting lists and this year's is no exception.  Here is a summary of this year's list…

  1. Every sound / movement can be recorded by 2030.  By the late 2010s, ubiquitous, unseen nanodevices will provide seamless communication and surveillance among all people everywhere.
  2. Bioviolence becomes a greater threat as the technology becomes more accessible.  Bacteria and viruses could be altered to increase their lethality or to evade antibiotic treatment.
  3. The car's days as king of the road may soon be over.  More powerful wireless communication that reduces demand for travel, flying delivery drones to replace trucks, and policies to restrict the number of vehicles owned in each household are among potential developments.
  4. Careers to become more specialized.  For example, instead of simply majoring in business, more students are beginning to explore niche majors such as sustainable business, strategic intelligence, and entrepreneurship.
  5. The world's legal systems will be networked.  The Global Legal Information Network (GLIN), a database of local and national laws for more than 50 participating countries will lay the groundwork for a more universal understanding of the diversity of laws between nations and will create new opportunities for peace and international partnership.
  6. Professional knowledge will become obsolete almost as quickly as it's acquired.  An individual's professional knowledge is becoming outdated at a much faster rate than ever before.  Rapid changes in the job market and work-related technologies will necessitate job education for almost every worker.
  7. The race for biomedical and genetic enhancement.  Humanity is ready and eager to pursue biomedical and genetic enhancement.
  8. Urbanization will hit 60 percent by 2030.   As more of the world's population lives in cities, rapid development to accommodate them will make existing environmental and socioeconomic problems worse. 
  9. The Middle East will become more secular while religious influence in China will grow.  Popular support for religious government will decline in the Middle East.  Religion in China will likely increase as an indirect result of economic activity and globalization.
  10. Access to electricity will reach 83 percent of the world by 2030.  Electrification, at 73 percent in 2000, may reach 83 percent of the world's people by 2030.  Electricity is fundamental to raising living standards and access to the world's products and services.

Access the full detail here  Top Ten Forecasts for 2009 and beyond.

Most of these seem like they are safe bets to me to be key trends by 2030, except for number 1 and 3.  I think those are much longer term trend (e.g. out another 100 years).