As I continue, like so many others, to look for a job, the report from the National Association for Business Economics yesterday morning came as music to my ears.The panel of 45 economics expects economic growth to rebound in the second half of 2009. And almost 75% of the survey respondents expect the recession to end by the end of 2009.I thought I would provide a quick summary of their predictions in the table below:
-1.8% in 2Q09, +1.2% for 2H09, -3.7% for FY09, +2.7% for FY10
$1.7T in 2009 falling to $1.4T in 2010
9.8% unemployment in 2009 down to 9.3% in 2010
Sales and housing starts to hit bottom in 1H09
Disagreement about timing of price bottoming out
Thrifty behavior to stay
Obtaining credit remains difficult despite actions from the FED to alleviate crunch
A few days ago, IBM's Global Location Trends report-October 2008 was released. The report is prepared annually by Plant Location International (PLI), IBM's global center of excellence for global location strategies, and economic development strategies.
IBM's Global Location Trends study reveals that multinational companies are increasingly widening their investments to include a number of emerging countries, with notable increases in Latin America and Africa.
Some of the key findings from this year's report are:
Globally, an estimated 1.2 million jobs will be created by 10,200 foreign (greenfield) investment projects announced in 2007.
The widening of global investment is a structural trend: despite an overall decrease in total investment, companies extend their search for markets, talents, and cost efficiency to new corners of the world.
New emerging markets continue to appear on companies' radar screens; Latin America & Africa in particular are increasing their share of global investment
Different strategic location drivers (market, talents, cost efficiency) result in a variety of location choices by sector and business function; targeted economic development strategies are indeed effective in responding to these different location strategies.
Renewable energy sector promises to be an important new job creator in many different areas globally.
Indian and Chinese companies are increasingly creating jobs in key global markets, and becoming important target groups for inward investment attraction.
Competition for skills, markets and cost efficiencies forces companies to be increasingly innovative in where they locate their activities and how they structure their global footprint.